·
The December index
of Consumer Confidence surged 5.4% to 103.6 on top of a 15.4% recovery
the prior month, reported the conference Board. The index stood at the
highest level since August and exceeded Consensus
expectations for a lesser gain to 102.3. The gain lagged a bit the 12.1%
m/m jump in Consumer sentiment reported last week by the University of
Michigan.
· During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
· The index of consumers' expectations added 3.6% (-9.0% y/y) to the 26.1% m/m spike during November. Optimism rose that more jobs would be created and that the inflation rate during the during the next year would ease.
· Consumers' assessment of the present situation rose 7.3% (14.9% y/y) on top of a 5.0% increase during November. Jobs were viewed as plentiful by 23.3% of respondents, the highest since August and fewer (22.2%) thought jobs were hard to get, the lowest since 2002.
· The Conference Board’s survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.