·
Orders for nondefense aircraft more than doubled m/m last month (158.6%
y/y) and combined with a 51.6% surge in October to lift durable goods
orders 4.4% versus Consensus expectations for a 1.0% November rise.
· Less the volatile transportation sector, durable goods orders fell 0.6% for the third consecutive monthly decline.
· Declines in orders last month were widespread across industries. Machinery orders, which had been strong, fell 1.6% (+12.7% y/y). Orders for communications equipment also fell 4.4% (+8.6% y/y) as did orders for motor vehicles & parts which fell 5.7% (-2.1% y/y). Finally, fabricated metals orders fell 2.4% (+1.4%), down for the second consecutive month.
· To the upside, orders for computers & related products rose 5.3% (11.6% y/y) and primary metals orders increased 1.4% (11.4% y/y).
· Orders for nondefense capital goods rose 19.6% due to the surge in aircraft orders which continued to benefit from the end of the Boeing strike in September. Less aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders fell 2.0% and have been erratically moving sideways since the Spring.
· Shipments of durable goods fell 0.2% (6.3% y/y) in November following a 1.2% October increase. Less the transportation sector, shipments fell slightly (6.7% y/y) after a 1.0% October jump.
· Order backlogs jumped 3.1% (13.9% y/y), again reflecting the rebound in aircraft. Less transportation backlogs rose a more moderate 0.7% (9.6% y/y) but the ratio of backlogs to shipments outside of transportation rose to its highest level since early 2002.
· Durable inventories rose 0.5% (4.1% y/y) after a like gain October. The I/S ratio for durable goods increased modestly m/m but remained below the highs of earlier this year.