·
The Japanese trade
balance has started to improve, with favorable movements in both exports
and imports since the surplus reached a low point in September.
In November, the surplus was ¥708.1 billion (seasonally
adjusted), almost the same as October's ¥698.6, but larger than ¥584.9
in September. Over the last couple of months, exports have continued to
grow, while imports have moderated along with oil prices.
Even so, non-oil imports have expanded more, so that the monthly
surplus is still well below the nearly ¥1 trillion on average for all
of 2004.
· Two
months ago, when we last wrote about Japan's trade, we expressed some
concern over import growth and the sensitivity to oil prices which it
indicated for the health of the Japanese economy generally.
This time, we've looked at these import data from a longer
perspective, and we find some very interesting facts.
In 1980, when petroleum prices were at then historic peaks just
under $40/barrel, the value of petroleum imports into Japan was ¥1
trillion monthly. The quantity of
petroleum imports averaged 21.2 million kiloliters monthly, making the
unit value of petroleum imports ¥47,200 per kiloliter in 1980.
Now, the dollar price of oil is far higher, averaging more than
$56/barrel for the first 11 months of this year.
But the unit value of oil imports into Japan has been only ¥34,800! The peak month was October, with ¥42,700 per kiloliter, still less
than the 1980 average. Thus, the
stronger yen and weaker dollar have made a tremendous difference for
Japan in the burden of this surge in petroleum prices.
Granted, the Japanese economy in general is not nearly so robust
as it was in 1980 and the recent unit values are much higher than the ¥10,600
of ten years ago. But the impact
is clearly more muted. Further,
Japan, as elsewhere in the world, has become less dependent on petroleum
usage. In fact, based on
fixed-weight GDP in 1995 prices, a kiloliter of imported petroleum in
2004 supported ¥6.9
million of GDP (in Q2), 88% more than the 1980
average of ¥3.7 million.