·
The Composite Index of Leading Economic
Indicators from the Conference Board increased 0.5% following an
upwardly revised 1.0% gain in October. It was the third increase in the
last five months and beat Consensus expectations for a 0.4% rise.
· The breadth of one month gain amongst the 10 components of the leading index remained firm at 70% as higher stock prices, a higher money supply, higher consumer confidence and fewer claims for unemployment insurance offset negative influences from lower capital goods orders and easier vendor performance.
· The method of calculating the contribution to the index from the interest rate yield spread has been revised. A negative contribution will now occur only when the spread inverts rather than when declining as in the past. More details can be found here.
· The leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series. Two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods, are estimated.
· The coincident indicators rose 0.2% following an upwardly revised 0.2% October gain. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the change in the coincident indicators and real GDP.
· The lagging indicators rose 0.6% for the second month of strong gain led by higher C&I loans, a higher services CPI growth rate, a longer unemployment duration and higher interest rates. The ratio of coincident to lagging indicators, a measure of actual economic performance versus excess, fell for the eighth month this year to its lowest level since August 2003.
· Visit the Conference Board's site
for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.