Housing Starts Post Surprising Gain; Single Family At Record

December 20, 2005

By Tom Moeller

· Housing starts surged 5.3% m/m in November. The gain to 2.123M units reversed most of the prior month's decline and beat Consensus expectations for a decline to 2.015M starts.

· A 4.8% gain in single-family starts returned the level to its record height of 1.808M achieved this past February. The gain was most pronounced in the West where starts rose 14.4% (25.8% y/y) and in the Midwest where starts rose 7.5% (22.5% y/y). In the South single family starts rose just 0.8% (22.1% y/y) but in the Northeast single family starts fell for the fourth month in the last five (+5.8% y/y).

· Multi family starts recovered about one third of the prior month's skid with a 7.9% m/m gain and building permits recovered about half of the prior month's 5.2% drop as single family permits inched up just 0.2% (7.7% y/y).

 

Housing Starts (000s, AR)

Nov

Oct

Y/Y

2004

2003

2002

Total

2,123

2,017

17.5%

1,950

1,854

1,7 10

  Single-family

1,808

1,725

21.8%

1,604

1,505

1,363

  Multi-family

315

292

-2.5%

345

349

347

Building Permits

2,155

2,103

3.0%

2,058

1,8 88

1,749

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