· The
weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle
Research Institute (ECRI) fell 0.1% last week following a 0.1% gain the
prior week. These muted changes underscore a pattern of sideways
movement in the ECRI series since this past August. Growth in the index
has since decelerated by more than half to 1.4%.
· During the last ten years there has been a 53% correlation between the change in the weekly leading index and US real GDP growth during the following quarter. The correlation has risen to 76% during the last five years.
· The recent deceleration in the
leaders' growth is part of a longer lived deceleration since early last
year when growth was near its peak of 12%. That slowdown mirrors the
pattern toward slower growth in the leading series from the Conference
Board and the OECD.
· Visit the Economic Cycle Research Institute for analysis of US and international business cycles.
· The Bretton Woods System: Are We Experiencing a Revival? Symposium Summary from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.