·
The
International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated
that chain store sales collapsed 3.1% last week following the 0.7% drop
during Thanksgiving week. It was the sharpest w/w drop since 1996 and
lowered the starting point for December sales by 3.3% versus the
November average which rose 1.2% m/m.
· During the last ten years there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
· The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC recovered 1.1% (-0.5% y/y) following the prior week's revised 0.3% dip.
· The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
· The latest decline in store sales was accompanied by an unchanged level of retail gasoline prices which held at $2.15 (12.3% y/y).