Euro-zone Growth Picks Up to 0.6% in Q3; Chain-Linking Introduced to Eurostat Aggregates
November 30, 2005
By Carol Stone
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· As to the performance, seen in the table below, growth picked up somewhat to 0.6% in Q3 from 0.4% in Q2. Final consumption grew 0.4%, slightly more than the 0.3% in the prior period; both public and private consumption participated. Exports were the other source of advance, surging by 3.4% after 2.2% in Q2. This put yearly expansion of exports at 5.2% from Q3 2004, largely keeping up the strong 5.9% pace set for last year as a whole. Imports gained a little more in the latest quarter. Overall capital formation looks weak, but importantly, the slowdown here is due to much smaller inventory accumulation; fixed investment advanced considerably, 1.6%, after 0.8% in Q2. This is the strongest investment gain since early 2000.
· Chain-linking is by now fairly well-known, and actually had remarkably little impact on total reported Euro-zone growth. History runs back only to 1995; perhaps the effect would have been greater in earlier years. Eurostat's press release shows changes in total growth of only 0.1%, up or down, in some quarters, but not in all and without trend. It's important to note that not all Euro-zone countries yet produce chain-weighted accounts. Italy and Belgium are two countries where no chaining is done; France's quarterly data is also not yet chained. So data for these three countries in particular remain in fixed-weight terms in the relevant Haver databases (ITALY, BENELUX and FRANCE, as well as EUROSTAT and G10).
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| EuroZone12 GDP: Chained 2000 Euros | Q3 2005 | Q2 2005 | Q3 2004 (yr/yr) | Yearly Totals | ||
| 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | ||||
| GDP | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Final Consumption | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Gross Capital Formation | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | -2.9 |
| Exports | 3.4 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| -Imports | 2.8 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 0.4 |