·
The
International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated
that during Thanksgiving week, chain store sales slipped 0.7% following
the prior period's 1.0% jump. The latest left the average level of sales
in November 1.2% above October which rose 0.1% from September.
· During the last ten years there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
· The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC slipped 0.3% (-2.0% y/y) during the latest week following two consecutive weeks of increases.
· The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
· The latest decline in store sales occurred despite a further drop in gasoline prices. The retail average price of gasoline in the U.S. fell a nickel last week to $2.15 (+10.7% y/y).