·
The Conference Board
reported that it's November index of Consumer Confidence recovered to
the highest level since August. The 16.1% m/m jump contrasted to Consensus
expectations for a lesser gain to 90.0 and it was the strongest m/m
increase since early 2003. The gain exceeded the 10.0% m/m rebound in
Consumer sentiment reported last week by the University of Michigan.
· During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
· The index of consumers' expectations ballooned 26.7% m/m (-1.6% y/y) as optimism rose that during the next six months business conditions would get better, more jobs would be created and that incomes would rise.
· Consumers' assessment of the present situation also improved and recovered some of the prior two months' decline (+18.4% y/y). Though an increased percentage of respondents indicated business conditions were good, jobs were viewed as hard to get by a lesser 23.2% of survey participants.
· The Conference Board’s survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.