New Home Sales; There's Life Yet

November 29, 2005

By Tom Moeller

· New single-family home sales rose a surprising 13.0% last month to a record 1.424M, adding to upwardly revised levels in September and August. The m/m  advance was the strongest since 1993 and the October level by far exceeded Consensus expectations for a decline to 1.20M.

· Home sales often strengthen as buyers attempt to beat further increases in interest rates.

· Sales were notably strong in the Northeast where a 43.3% (-16.5% y/y) rise recouped nearly all of the prior two months' declines while sales out West  recovered all of the prior two months' weakness with a 46.9% (8.8% y/y) jump. Sales in the South rose a lesser 1.9% (27.5% y/y) but that followed gains during the prior two months. In the Midwest, sales reversed much the gain in September with a 9.5% decline that was the fourth decline in five months and left sales down 17.4% versus the May peak.

· The median price of a new single family home rose 1.6% m/m (0.9% y/y) after a 2.4% decline in September that was shallower than originally estimated.

· The figures from the Census Department reflect home sales counted at the time of sales contract or deposit.

                               

Homes Sales (000s, AR)

Oct

Sept

Y/Y

2004 2003

2002

New Single-Family 1,424 1,260 9.0% 1,200 1,091 976

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