·
The
International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated
that last week, chain store sales recovered more than all of the prior
period's decline with a 1.0% jump. It was the second w/w jump that
strong this month and it lifted the average level of sales in November
1.2% above October which rose 0.1% from September.
· During the last ten years there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
· The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC rose 0.6% (-1.7% y/y) during the latest week following a 0.2% increase the prior week.
·
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index
is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year)
reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated,
Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart. 
· Through the second week of November, the Johnson Redbook survey indicated a lesser 0.2% (3.5% y/y) gain in store sales versus October. The survey tracks 15 stores and reflects same-store sales of retailers that account for roughly 85% of the department store category in the Census Bureau's monthly retail sales report.
· During the last nine years there has been a 67% correlation between the y/y change in the Redbook store sales index and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department.