U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebounded

December 23, 2004

By Tom Moeller

· Durable goods orders rebounded 1.6% following a 0.9% decline in October that was twice the advance indication. The Consensus expectation had been for a 0.6% gain. Less transportation, orders fell 0.8% (+11.8% y/y) and added to a 1.3% decline in October.

· Transportation equipment orders rose 8.2% reflecting a 41.9% spurt in aircraft & parts orders. Primary metals orders rose 3.9% (+23.6% y/y) but orders for fabricated metals eased 0.4% (+12.5% y/y).

· Nondefense capital goods orders surged 8.1% m/m led by a 64.2% jump in aircraft. Excluding aircraft, orders rose 1.8% and recouped about half of the decline in October. A 4.6% (9.8% y/y) rise in orders for electrical equipment & appliances led the gain, however, that was offset by a 4.2% decline (+12.6% y/y) in orders for computers & electronic products, off for the second consecutive month. Machinery orders fell as well by 3.3% (+16.3% y/y).

· Unfilled orders rose 1.2% (9.2% y/y), double the gain in October. Shipments fell for the second month in the last three so the rise in unfilled orders pulled the ratio of backlogs to shipments up sharply.

· Inventories of durable goods surged 1.0% (8.3% y/y) after the 0.9% October gain which was revised up sharply. The inventory to shipments ratio rose to its highest level in a year.

 

 

 

 

 

NAICS Classification

Nov

Oct

Y/Y

2003

2002

2001

Durable Goods Orders 1.6% -0.9% 9.7% 2.6% -1.7% -10.5%

Nondefense Capital Goods

8.1% -3.4% 21.2% 5.6% -7.2% -15.5%

Excluding Aircraft

1.8% -4.1% 14.3% 6.6% -7.1% -12.9%

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