U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebounded
December 23, 2004
By Tom Moeller
· Transportation equipment orders rose 8.2% reflecting a 41.9% spurt in aircraft & parts orders. Primary metals orders rose 3.9% (+23.6% y/y) but orders for fabricated metals eased 0.4% (+12.5% y/y). · Nondefense capital goods orders surged 8.1% m/m led by a 64.2% jump in aircraft. Excluding aircraft, orders rose 1.8% and recouped about half of the decline in October. A 4.6% (9.8% y/y) rise in orders for electrical equipment & appliances led the gain, however, that was offset by a 4.2% decline (+12.6% y/y) in orders for computers & electronic products, off for the second consecutive month. Machinery orders fell as well by 3.3% (+16.3% y/y). · Unfilled orders rose 1.2% (9.2% y/y), double the gain in October. Shipments fell for the second month in the last three so the rise in unfilled orders pulled the ratio of backlogs to shipments up sharply. · Inventories
of durable
goods surged 1.0% (8.3% y/y) after the 0.9% October gain which was
revised up sharply.
The inventory to shipments ratio rose to its highest level in a year.
|
| NAICS Classification |
Nov |
Oct |
Y/Y |
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
| Durable Goods Orders | 1.6% | -0.9% | 9.7% | 2.6% | -1.7% | -10.5% |
|
Nondefense Capital Goods |
8.1% | -3.4% | 21.2% | 5.6% | -7.2% | -15.5% |
|
Excluding Aircraft |
1.8% | -4.1% | 14.3% | 6.6% | -7.1% | -12.9% |