·
The November National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal
Reserve Bank of Chicago fell to 0.12 from a downwardly revised 0.49 the
prior month. The figure continues to suggest that the U.S. economy is
expanding.
· The decline lowered slightly the three-month moving average of the CFNAI to 0.13, the lowest level in a year. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
· During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
· The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
· The latest CFNAI report is available here.
· The future was the topic at this Economic Outlook Symposium.