·
The Composite Index of Leading Economic
Indicators from the Conference Board rose in November by 0.2%, the first
up month since May. October was downwardly revised to a 0.4% decline.
The Consensus expectation had been for a 0.1% increase in November.
· Six-month growth in the leaders continued to weaken to -2.2%. While it's getting close to call, recession in the U.S. still is not suggested. Negative growth in the leaders exceeding 2.5% preceded past recessionary periods.
· Further tempering any negative suggestion is that 60% of the 10 components of the leading index rose over a one month span; the widest breadth of gain since May and the six month breadth rose to 50% versus 30% during the prior two months. The largest positive contributions were made in November by stock prices and the money supply.
· The leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series. Two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods, are estimated.
· In addition, the ratio of the coincident to the lagging indicators (a measure of actual economic performance relative to economic excess) rose for the third month in four to a record high.
· The coincident indicators rose by just 0.1% and the six-month growth rate fell to 1.9%, down from the high of 3.3% early this year. During the last ten years there has been an 82% correlation between the six month growth in the coincident indicators and two quarter growth in real GDP.
· Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
· The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis examines "Gasoline Affordability" in this report.