Argentina Recovery Continues
December 17, 2004
By Carol Stone
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There is still considerable inflation in Argentina, however. The implicit price deflator surged, of course, in 2002 when the peso was de-linked from the US dollar and then dropped sharply. In Q2 2002, the implicit deflator gained 25.9%; it then slowed dramatically, led by export prices, which fell 11.1% in Q1 2003. In the latest quarter, the overall deflator fell 4.0%, but the year-on-year pace has been 10.9% for the last two quarters. Rebounds in prices in the public consumption, investment and export sectors have raised total inflation. On its devaluation at the beginning of 2002, the peso jumped from 1 peso/$1 to 3.80 pesos/$1 by June. Over the following several months it settled back to just about 2.95/$1 in the middle of 2003, and it has hovered there since. The accompanying chart shows what happened to nominal GDP when the de-linking occurred. |
| % Change | Q3 2004 | Q2 2004 | Year Ago | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
| GDP | 2.9 | 0.8 | 8.3 | 8.8 | -10.9 | -4.4 |
| Private Consumption | 2.9 | 1.0 | 8.8 | 8.2 | -14.4 | -5.7 |
| Fixed Investment | 5.8 | 2.1 | 33.1 | 38.2 | -36.4 | -15.7 |
| Implicit Price Deflator | -4.0 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 39.8 | -1.8 |
| Employment Rate (% of population) | 40.1 | 39.4 | 38.2 | 37.8 | 36.6 | NA |
| Unemployment Rate (% of labor force) | 13.2 | 14.8 | 16.3 | 17.3 | 22.4 | NA |