Housing Starts Fell Sharply

December 16, 2004

By Tom Moeller

· Housing starts in November fell a sharp 13.1% m/m to 1.771M, reversing all of a 7.0% rise in October. Consensus expectations had been for 1.98M starts. The latest was the lowest level of starts since May 2003.

· Single-family starts fell 11.7% to 1.448M, also the lowest since May 2003, and multi-family starts dropped 19.0%.

· Building permits fell 1.5% m/m to 1.988M after an upwardly revised gain October.  

· The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) rose to 71 in December from a downwardly revised November level of 70.

· The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

· The index of current single family home sales was stable at its highest in over a year and the index of expected sales in six months rose.

 

Housing Starts (000s, AR)

Nov

Oct

Y/Y

2003

2002

2001

Total

1,771

2,039

-13.8%

1,8 53

1,7 10

1,601

  Single-family

1,448

1,640

-13.3%

1,505

1,3 63

1,272

  Multi-family

3 23

399

-15.9%

348

347

330

Building Permits

1,988

2,018

3.5%

1,8 89

1,749

1,637

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