U.S. Productivity Growth Little Revised for 3Q

December 7, 2004

By Tom Moeller

· Non-farm labor productivity growth last quarter was little revised at 1.8% and about matched Consensus expectations for 2.0% growth.

· Growth in hours worked by all persons (employment times hours) was revised up to 2.4% (1.5% y/y) from 2.1% but output growth also was revised up to  4.2% (4.7% y/y), the same as in 2Q.

· Unit labor costs grew 1.8% as compensation growth was left unchanged at 3.6% (4.0% y/y).

· Productivity in the manufacturing sector was revised up to 4.6% (4.7% y/y) from 4.3%. Unit labor cost growth in the factory sector was revised down slightly to no change (-1.5% y/y).

· In the nonfinancial corporate sector productivity growth accelerated to 4.2% (3.1% y/y) from 3.3% in 2Q. This is the first release of figures for 3Q. Output, a figure derived from the income side of the National Income & Product Accounts, grew at a 5.6% (4.8% y/y) rate versus 4.2% growth in 2Q. Hours worked grew at a 1.3% rate (1.7% y/y).

· During the last ten years there has been an 86% (inverse) correlation between y/y growth in unit labor costs in the nonfinancial corporate sector and profit growth.

· From The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is this paper titled "The acceleration in U.S. total factor productivity after 1995: The role of information technology."

 

Non-farm Business Sector (SAAR) 3Q '04 (Revised) 3Q '04 (Prelim.) 2Q '04

Y/Y

2003

2002

2001

Output per Hour 1.8% 1.9% 3.9% 3.1% 4.4% 4.4% 2.5%
Compensation 3.6% 3.6% 5.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.3% 4.0%
Unit Labor Costs 1.8% 1.6% 1.9% 0.8% -0.4% -1.1% 1.5%

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