U.S. Productivity Growth Little Revised for 3Q
December 7, 2004
By Tom Moeller
· Growth in hours worked by all persons (employment times hours) was revised up to 2.4% (1.5% y/y) from 2.1% but output growth also was revised up to 4.2% (4.7% y/y), the same as in 2Q. · Unit labor costs grew 1.8% as compensation growth was left unchanged at 3.6% (4.0% y/y). · Productivity in the manufacturing sector was revised up to 4.6% (4.7% y/y) from 4.3%. Unit labor cost growth in the factory sector was revised down slightly to no change (-1.5% y/y).
· During the last ten years there has been an 86% (inverse) correlation between y/y growth in unit labor costs in the nonfinancial corporate sector and profit growth. · From The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is this paper titled "The acceleration in U.S. total factor productivity after 1995: The role of information technology."
|
| Non-farm Business Sector (SAAR) | 3Q '04 (Revised) | 3Q '04 (Prelim.) | 2Q '04 |
Y/Y |
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
| Output per Hour | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Compensation | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% |
| Unit Labor Costs | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | -0.4% | -1.1% | 1.5% |