·
The November Business
Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector rose to 61.3, adding 1.5
points to the 3.1 point gain in October, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Consensus expectations
had been for a modest decline to 58.5.
· Since the series' inception in 1997 there has been a 55% correlation between the Business Activity Index and the q/q change in GDP services plus construction.
· The employment sub index fell modestly to 55.0 following three months of gain. Since the series' inception in 1997 there has been a 60% correlation between the level of the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the m/m change in payroll employment in the service producing plus the construction industries.
· The new orders index fell for the third month in the last four.
· ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The non-manufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively.
· Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector reflects a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index is a weighted average five components.