·
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business
Barometer fell 3.3 points in November to 65.2 and reversed half of the
October move upward. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to
62.0.
· During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 86% during the last five years.
· The new orders index reversed nearly all of the October gain with a 9.4 point drop. Conversely, the employment index added 6.7 points to a slight October uptick and rose to the highest level since 1988. During the last twenty years there has been an 80% correlation between the level of this employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
· The index of prices paid rose to 89.8. During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.