·
The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer
Confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month, down 2.6% in November
to the lowest level (90.5) since March. Consensus expectations had been
for a reading of 96.0.
· During the last twenty years there has been a 51% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
· The index of consumer expectations fell sharply for the third month in the last four to 87.4 (-12.7% y/y). The present situation index rose modestly to 95.2 (+17.5% y/y) following three months of decline.
· Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 28.1% of survey participants versus 27.9% in October and by 31.8% during all of last year. Fewer jobs in six months were expected by 19.7% of participants, the highest percentage in a year.
· The Conference Board’s survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.