·
In October, housing starts rose 6.4% to 2.027M, the highest level of the
year. Consensus expectations had been for 1.96M starts. · Single-family
starts recouped nearly all of the prior month's decline with a 5.7%
gain. Year to date single family starts averaged 1.605M, up 6.6% from last
year's full year average. Multi-family starts rose 9.5% and the year to
date average equals last year.
· Building permits
fell 0.7% m/m to 1.984M.
· The Composite Housing Market Index
from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) was stable in
November t the downwardly revised October level of 71. · The
NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings
above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
· The index of
current single family home sales also surged to its highest in a year
and the index of expected sales in six months jumped the highest level
since 1999.
· During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the level of single family housing starts and the NAHB Index.