· Gasoline prices jumped 8.6% (26.6% y/y) last month but so far in November have not risen further. Fuel oil prices also were strong and surged 8.1% (35.0% y/y). Natural gas prices fell for the second month (+3.1% y/y).   

· "Core" commodities prices again rose and the 0.4% gain was driven by a 1.0% (0.8% y/y) rise in household furnishings & operation. New motor vehicle prices also increased for the first month in four, up 0.4% (-0.5% y/y) and apparel prices rose 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) .

· The increase in services prices less energy eased a bit to 0.2% as the gain in shelter prices fell to just 0.1% (2.8% y/y). Health care services rose 0.4% (5.1% y/y) and tuition & child care costs rose 0.4% (6.8% y/y). Public transportation prices rose 1.4% (-2.3% y/y) after two months of decline.

· The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases rose 0.5%. Similar to the PCE price deflator, core chain prices rose 0.4% for the second consecutive month.

· "Labor Markets, Energy Prices, and the Outlook for 2005" from Michael H. Moskow, President & CEO
of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago are available here.

Consumer Price Index

Oct

Sept

Y/Y

2003

2002

2001

Total 

0.6%

0.2%

3.2%

2.3%

1.6%

2.8%

 Total less Food & Energy

0.2%

0.3%

2.0%

1.5%

2.3%

2.7%

  Goods less Food & Energy

0.4%

0.2%

0.1%

-2.0%

-1.1%

0.3%

  Services less Energy

0.2%

0.3%

2.8%

2.9%

3.8%

3.7%

 Energy

4.2%

-0.4%

15.2%

12.2%

-5.8%

3.7%

 Food

0.6%

0.0%

3.5%

2.1%

1.8%

3.1%

Chained CPI: Total (NSA)

0.5%

0.3%

2.7%

1.9%

1.3%

2.3%

 Total less Food & Energy

0.4%

0.4%

1.7%

1.1%

1.9%

 2.0%