Jobless Insurance Claims Lowest Since Early 2001

December 31, 2003

By Tom Moeller

· Initial claims for jobless insurance fell last week to 339,000, the lowest level since the first week of 2001. The prior week's level was little revised at 354,000. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 350,000.

· The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 355,750 (-13.3% y/y).

· Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 81,000 but the prior week's sharp decline was about doubled to 74,000.

· The insured rate of unemployment was unchanged at 2.6% for the sixth straight week.

   
Unemployment Insurance (000s)

12/27

12/20

Y/Y

2002

2001

2000
Initial Claims 339.0 354.0 -15.3% 404.3 406.0 299.7
Continuing Claims -- 3,315 -4.4% 3,575 3,022 2,114

 

 

Mortgage Applications Lower

December 31, 2003

By Tom Moeller

· The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell 9.0% last week (-39.6% y/y).

· Purchase applications fell 5.2% w/w (+17.4% y/y). Purchase applications so far in December are down 3.8% from the November average.

·  Applications to refinance fell 13.8% week to week (-63.9% y/y). December refis are down 16.3% from November.

·  During the last ten years there has been a 54% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.

· The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-Year mortgage rose slightly to 6.00%. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.36%.

· The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.

 
MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)

12/26

12/19

2002

2001

2000
Total Market Index 574.1 631.2 799.7 625.6 322.7
  Purchase 390.1 411.6 354.7 304.9 302.7
  Refinancing 1,644.3 1,908.3 3,388.0 2,491.0 438.8

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