Help-Wanted Advertising Improved
December 29, 2003
By Tom Moeller
|
· During the last ten years there has been a 92% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls. · The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume surged to 73%, the highest level since June. · Indexes of help wanted improved throughout the country, but most notably in the South and Mountain regions. · The Conference Board surveys help-wanted
advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month. |
| Conference Board | Nov |
Oct |
Nov '02 |
| National Help Wanted Index | 39 | 37 | 40 |
Mad Cow Disease Ends Rally in Beef Prices
December 29, 2003
By Tom Moeller
·
Reports of mad cow disease in Washington State
ended the year-long rally in beef prices as demand fell. The Texas-Oklahoma
cash price for steers dropped last week to $90.97/cwt, down 16.5% from the
daily high in mid-October.
· During the last twenty years there has been a 62% correlation between the y/y change in livestock commodity prices and the change in consumer prices for meats, poultry & fish. · Firming industrial activity has lifted prices for industrial commodities. Stainless steel scrap prices have risen 62% this year and copper prices surged 47%. Aluminum prices are up 17%. · During the last twenty years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in metals prices as measured by the Journal of Commerce/ECRI index and the change in factory sector industrial production. · Gold prices surged to the highest level since 1996. The rise was accompanied by strength in silver (+22.6% y/y) and platinum (+37.1% y/y) prices. · During the last twenty years there has been a 41% correlation between the level of gold prices and the y/y change in the CPI.
|
| Commodity Prices |
12/24/03 |
12/31/02 |
Y/Y |
2002 |
2001 |
2000 |
| Gold: Handy & Harman Base Price ($/oz.) | $409.25 | $344.80 | 18.7% | $310.05 | $271.06 | $278.88 |
| Stainless Steel Scrap ($/gross ton) | $1,265.00 | $782.00 | 61.8% | $717.10 | $650.52 | $739.07 |
| Copper: High Grade (COMEX, $/Lb.) | $1.03 | $0.70 | 45.3% | $0.72 | $0.73 | $0.84 |
| Steers: Cash Price: Texas-Oklahoma Avg. ($/cwt) | $90.97 | $73.00 | 28.0% | $66.54 | $71.86 | $69.49 |