Help-Wanted Advertising Improved

December 29, 2003

By Tom Moeller

· The Conference Board’s National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising improved to 39 last month, the highest level since March.

· During the last ten years there has been a 92% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls.

· The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume surged to 73%, the highest level since June.

· Indexes of help wanted improved throughout the country, but most notably in the South and Mountain regions.

· The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month.
  

Conference Board Nov

Oct

Nov '02

National Help Wanted Index 39 37 40

 

 

Mad Cow Disease Ends Rally in Beef Prices

December 29, 2003

By Tom Moeller

· Reports of mad cow disease in Washington State ended the year-long rally in beef prices as demand fell. The Texas-Oklahoma cash price for steers dropped last week to $90.97/cwt, down 16.5% from the daily high in mid-October.

· During the last twenty years there has been a 62% correlation between the y/y change in livestock commodity prices and the change in consumer prices for meats, poultry & fish.

· Firming industrial activity has lifted prices for industrial commodities. Stainless steel scrap prices have risen 62% this year and copper prices surged 47%. Aluminum prices are up 17%.

· During the last twenty years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in metals prices as measured by the Journal of Commerce/ECRI index and the change in factory sector industrial production.

· Gold prices surged to the highest level since 1996. The rise was accompanied by strength in silver (+22.6% y/y) and platinum (+37.1% y/y) prices.    

· During the last twenty years there has been a 41% correlation between the level of gold prices and the y/y change in the CPI.

 

Commodity Prices

12/24/03

12/31/02

Y/Y

2002

2001

2000

Gold: Handy & Harman Base Price ($/oz.) $409.25 $344.80 18.7% $310.05 $271.06 $278.88
Stainless Steel Scrap ($/gross ton) $1,265.00 $782.00 61.8% $717.10 $650.52 $739.07
Copper: High Grade (COMEX, $/Lb.) $1.03 $0.70 45.3% $0.72 $0.73 $0.84
Steers: Cash Price: Texas-Oklahoma Avg. ($/cwt) $90.97 $73.00 28.0% $66.54 $71.86 $69.49

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