US Dollar Up This Month Versus Major Currency Index, Depressed Vs. Euro

December 22, 2003

By Tom Moeller

 

· The foreign exchange value of the US dollar versus major currencies has risen 2.5% since the early December low (-12.2% y/y). Roughly 50% of US foreign trade is with the countries in the major currency index.

· Since 1990 there has been a 65% (inverse) correlation between the value of the dollar against major currencies and the y/y change in nonoil import prices.

· Extreme dollar weakness against the Euro (17.4% of US trade) has been accompanied by lesser weakness against the yen (12.1% of trade) and sharp dollar improvement against the Canadian dollar (17.0% of trade).

· Analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention can be found here.

· Against the Canadian dollar the US currency has rallied 2.5% this month but is down 14.1% y/y.

· Versus the UK pound, the dollar has weakened appreciably, down 2.6% just this month. 4.4% of US trade is with Great Britain.

· Against a broader basket of currencies the US dollar has fallen 1.3% this month (-8.5% y/y. The dollar has been flat-to-lower versus the Mexican peso (+10.0% y/y), the Chinese yuan (-0.04% y/y) and other Asian currencies. Over 40% of US foreign trade is denominated in these currencies.

Exchange Rates

12/18/03

12/31/02

Y/Y

2002

2001

2000

US$ Major Currency Index (3/73=100) 86.35 97.65 -12.2% 103.08 104.26 98.42
Japan (Yen/US$) 107.92 118.75 -10.7% 125.22 121.57 107.80
European Monetary Union (US$/Euro) 1.2376 1.0485 21.1% 0.9454 0.8952 0.9232
United Kingdom (US$/Pound) 1.7673 1.6095 10.6% 1.5025 1.4396 1.5156

Commentary Archive