US Dollar Up This Month Versus Major Currency Index, Depressed Vs. Euro
December 22, 2003
By Tom Moeller
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The foreign exchange value of the US dollar
versus major currencies has risen 2.5% since the early December low (-12.2%
y/y). Roughly 50% of US foreign trade is with the countries in the major
currency index.
· Since 1990 there has been a 65% (inverse) correlation between the value of the dollar against major currencies and the y/y change in nonoil import prices. · Extreme dollar weakness against the Euro (17.4% of US trade) has been accompanied by lesser weakness against the yen (12.1% of trade) and sharp dollar improvement against the Canadian dollar (17.0% of trade). · Analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention can be found here. · Against the Canadian dollar the US currency has rallied 2.5% this month but is down 14.1% y/y. · Versus the UK pound, the dollar has weakened appreciably, down 2.6% just this month. 4.4% of US trade is with Great Britain. · Against a broader basket of currencies the US dollar has fallen 1.3% this month (-8.5% y/y. The dollar has been flat-to-lower versus the Mexican peso (+10.0% y/y), the Chinese yuan (-0.04% y/y) and other Asian currencies. Over 40% of US foreign trade is denominated in these currencies.
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