Q4 Euro-zone Activity Shows Improvement

December 12, 2003

By Randy Gernaat

· October figures recently released for several Euro-zone economies generally show improvement in industrial production at the beginning of the 4th quarter - signaling that the real activity data may be beginning to follow the more upbeat business surveys.

· France reported 1.3% growth in industrial production in October, the highest month-on-month growth rate seen in 4 years. Dutch industrial production was up 1.7% in October versus September, while early estimates of the more volatile Irish IP was up by 13.1% (up 6.6% for the latest three month period of August-October). 

· German industrial production in October reported last week showed one of the largest gains in years at 2.4%. Spain also reported healthy growth in industrial production last week. Only Italian production figures disappointed with flat results reported today for October (no growth over September).

 · Official Euro-zone industrial production figures published by Eurostat are scheduled for release next Wednesday, December 17.

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