Euro-zone Confidence Indicators Mostly Positive

November 25, 2003

By Louise Curley

· Recent releases of several indicators of confidence among businessmen and consumers in the Euro-zone suggest that, on balance, confidence is improving.  The  IFO indexes of business confidence for West and East Germany have risen steadily since April and May, respectively, and are now well above year ago levels.  While still below year ago levels, business confidence in Belgium has improved steadily since March of this year.  Business confidence in the Netherlands declined slightly in November but is still well above the low of -10.1 reached in June of this year.

· Consumers in the Netherlands and Belgium have seen some improvement in their current economic situation and, as a result, have become more confident. Consumers in Italy, on the contrary, continue to view negatively both their current situation and the outlook for the next twelve months.  As a result, they have become even more pessimistic.  

 

 

 

  Nov 03

 

Oct 03

Nov 02 

M/M 
%
Y/Y 
%

2002

2001

2000

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE                
  West Germany IFO (1991=100) 95.7 94.3 87.3 1.48 9.62 89.0 89.9 99.3
  East Germany IFO (1991=100) 105.2 104.7 95.0 0.48 10.74 98.6 101.4 106.0
  Netherlands (% balance) -3.8 -3.0 0.7 -0.8 -3.1 -1.6 -1.1 6.8
  Belgium (% balance -7.9 -9.4 -6.3 1.5 -1.6 -7.9 -9.4 4.2
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE                
  Netherlands (% balance) -30 -36 -30 6 0 -20 -1 24
  Belgium (% balance) -6 -15 -4 9 -2 -2 -0 13
  Italy ISAE (1980=100) 104.0 106.8 109.7 -2.62 -5.20 115.8 122.7 119.4
    Situation in the last 12 months -75 -70 -69 -5 -6 -46 -28 -37
    Situation  expected  in the next 12 months -29 -28 -18 -1 -11 -6 -5 -1

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