· New orders (41.37) were notably strong as were shipments (37.6). Both indexes rose sharply to new records in November. Employment (10.26) eased slightly m/m but the latest level was the second highest on record.

· The index of prices paid rose slightly to 9.40 and continued the firming trend of the last five months.

· The survey includes measures of expectations for business conditions six months ahead. The November index rose to a new high of 67.00 as expectations for capital expenditures improved further, also to a new record level.

· The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.

· Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question, not the components.

· For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here. 

Nov

Oct

Y/Y (11/02)

2002

· Retail inventories rebounded 1.0% following the 0.7% plunge in August. Excluding autos, retail inventories surged 0.8% (2.7% y/y), the most for any month since May 2000.

· This jump was led by a 2.1% (9.5% y/y) spike in the building materials category and a 1.0% (2.1% y/y) recovery in inventories at general merchandise stores following several months of decline.

· Retail inventories of motor vehicles and parts gained back 1.5% (9.5% y/y) versus the 2.1% August drop. According to the Federal Reserve, the gain was accomplished as output of motor vehicles rose 6.5% in September.

· Overall business sales surged 0.6% (4.6% y/y) led by a 1.4% (3.1% y/y) jump in factory shipments which primarily reflected a 6.2% jump in shipments of transportation equipment.

· The inventory-to-sales ratio was stable for the third month at the record low level of 1.36.

· A report titled "Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?" from economists at The Federal Reserve Board can be found here.

Sept

Aug

Y/Y

2002

2001

2000