Chain Store Sales Up

December 31, 2002

· Chain store sales rose during Christmas week. The 2.1% w/w gain was the third consecutive weekly rise according to the BTM-UBSW survey.

· The late month surge in sales finally recouped a sharp decline early in the month and pulled December sales to date 0.1% (2.8% y/y) above the November average. Sales in December fell slightly m/m last year after dropping 1.0% in 2000.

· During the last ten years there has been a 48% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales. That correlation rose to 63% during the last five years.

BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)	12/28/02	12/21/02	Y/Y	2001	2000	1999
Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales	409.0	400.4	2.9%	2.1%	3.4%	6.7%

Consumer Confidence Down

December 31, 2002

By Tom Moeller

· The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence for December fell unexpectedly. Consensus expectations were for a reading of 86.0. November confidence was revised up slightly.

· The 5.4% m/m decline in Consumer Confidence was the eighth of the year. The decline in Confidence ran counter to the December rise in Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.

· The decline in confidence reflected lower readings of both the present situation and consumer expectations. The decline in the present situation reading was sharp.

· During the last ten years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of Consumer Confidence and the y/y percent change in real PCE. That correlation rose to 74% during the last five years.

· The Conference Board's survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

Conference Board	Dec	Nov	Y/Y	2002	2001	2000
Consumer Confidence	80.3	84.9	-15.1%	96.6	106.6	139.0

Commentary Archive