· Orders for nondefense capital goods fell sharply, reversing most of the sharp October gain and leaving in place an erratic sideways movement for most of the year. Capital goods orders excluding aircraft and parts orders also fell, down 2.2% for the third decline in the last four months.

· Orders for motor vehicles and parts fell 4.5%, reversing all of the prior month's gain. Orders excluding all transportation equipment fell 1.3% and reversed virtually all of the October rise.

· Orders for computers and electronic products added slightly to the strong October gain (-2.9% YTD). Machinery orders plunged 3.2% for the third decline in four months (-0.9% YTD). Orders for electrical equipment fell 0.6% and were down 1.2% YTD.

· During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the annual change in orders for durable goods and the level of the ISM orders index.

· Shipments of durable goods fell 1.3% (1.8% YTD). Shipments of computers fell 3.2% (+3.6% YTD).

· Durable inventories fell 0.2% (-4.6% YTD), the fourteenth consecutive monthly decline. 

· For new analysis by the NY Federal Reserve on inventory behavior, go to nyfed.org.

Nov

Oct

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999

· December sales so far were 0.6% below the November average.

· The BTM Leading Indicator of chain store sales rose slightly following a sharp decline the week prior (-0.2% y/y).

· During the last ten years there has been a 48% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales.  That correlation rose to 64% during the last five years.

12/21/02

12/14/02

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999