·The latest figure is for the survey period for December nonfarm payrolls. The sharp 13.4% rise in claims from the November survey period probably overstates the degree of recent weakening in the labor market.

· The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 400,750, down 6.2% y/y.

· Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose a sharp 7.0% w/w. That followed sharp declines in the prior two weeks. The level of claimants in the prior week was revised down.

· The insured rate of unemployment rose back to 2.7% and remained down slightly from the average of the prior four months. 

12/14/02

12/07/02

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999

· The breadth-of-gain amongst the leaders' component series fell slightly to 55%, but the last two months represent marked improvement from 3Q.

· Lower claims for jobless insurance, higher stock prices, a higher money supply, a steeper yield curve and higher consumer expectations had large, and roughly equal, positive influences on the leading index in November. 

· The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators rose after having been unchanged in October. The ratio is an indicator of excess relative to actual economic performance.

· The coincident indicators have moved sideways since July.

· The Leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series and two that are estimated. 

Nov

Oct

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999

· The improvement left the three-month moving average of the CFNAI at -0.57, a level consistent with roughly 2% growth in real GDP.

. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.

· During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and quarterly growth in real GDP.

· The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production & income, the labor market, personal consumption & housing, mfg. & trade sales, and inventories & orders.

· For a complete discussion of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index click here. 

· A discussion of the CFNAI and its role as a business cycle indicator can be found here.

Nov

Oct

Nov '01

2001

2000

1999

· The improvement mirrored the surprising, modest rise reported Monday in the Empire State General Conditions Index for December.

· Amongst the sub indexes new orders, shipments and employment fell versus November. Inventories, unfilled orders and delivery lead times improved.

· The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the components.

· The Philadelphia Fed index is based on a survey of 250 regional manufacturing firms, but these firms sell nationally and internationally.

· During the last ten years there has been a 71% correlation between the level of the General Activity Index and the level of the ISM Composite Index.

· For a discussion of the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey click here.
 

Dec

Nov

Y/Y

2002

2001

2000

· Receipts fell 3.6% m/m following a sharp m/m decline in October. Calendar distortions probably aggravated the shortfall due to the weak economy. Individual tax payments fell 18.7% m/m and were down 8.6% in October and November versus last fiscal year to date. The gain in payroll taxes has slowed to a fraction of its 6.3% in FY 2001.

· Federal expenditures rose slightly m/m following a surge in October. Fiscal YTD outlays were up 5.1% y/y. Defense spending was up 10.4% y/y. Spending on health (11.1%) and education (13.0%) programs continued strong.

· For a discussion of the economic effects of long-term fiscal discipline by the Brookings Institution click here.

Nov

Oct

Y/Y

FY2002

FY2001

FY2000