December 18, 2002
By Tom Moeller
·
The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved more than expected in October.
September's deficit was revised lower due to lessened imports.
Consensus expectations had been for a October deficit of $36.5B.
Declines in exports and imports likely were influenced by the dock
workers strike.
· Exports fell for the third consecutive month due to across the board component declines. Capital goods exports plunged 2.5% (5.4% AR, YTD). Exports of foods, feeds and beverages fell a hefty 4.0%, the third consecutive monthly decline. Auto exports fell for the fourth month in five. Nonauto consumer goods exports rose following two months of decline (1.1% AR, YTD). · Imports fell for the third month in four also due to across the board component declines. Capital goods imports fell a huge 6.0% (-1.7% AR, YTD), the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Imports of nonauto consumer goods also plunged, down 4.9% for the third monthly decline in four. Imports of industrial supplies and materials rose despite a decline in the refiner's acquisition cost of imported crude oil. The cost of crude oil fell to $26.74 in October from $27.14 in September.
|
| Foreign Trade |
Oct |
Sept |
Y/Y |
2001 |
2000 |
1999 |
| Trade Deficit | $35.1B | $37.1B | $30.8B(10/01) | $358.3B | $378.7B | $262.2B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | -1.0% | -0.4% | 5.7% | -6.2% | 11.2% | 2.6% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | -2.4% | -1.1% | 8.0% | -6.0% | 18.3% | 10.9% |
December 18, 2002
By Tom Moeller
|
|
· The index of mortgage
applications, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, last week
recovered all of the prior week's sharp decline.
· Mortgage applications to refinance surged as interest rates fell for the second consecutive week. · The recent contract rate on a conventional 30 year mortgage was 5.91% versus 6.09% at the end of November. · Mortgage applications for home purchase surged and recovered most of the prior week's decline. |
|
|
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) |
12/13/02 |
11/08/02 |
2001 |
2000 |
1999 |
| Total Market Index | 985.5 | 992.3 | 625.6 | 322.7 | 352.0 |
| Purchase | 379.9 | 333.3 | 304.9 | 302.7 | 275.8 |
| Refinancing | 4,507.6 | 4,825.6 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 | 795.2 |