U.S. Trade Deficit Improved

December 18, 2002

By Tom Moeller

· The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved more than expected in October. September's deficit was revised lower due to lessened imports.  Consensus expectations had been for a October deficit of $36.5B. Declines in exports and imports likely were influenced by the dock workers strike.

· Exports fell for the third consecutive month due to across the board component declines. Capital goods exports plunged 2.5% (5.4% AR, YTD). Exports of foods, feeds and beverages fell a hefty 4.0%, the third consecutive monthly decline. Auto exports fell for the fourth month in five. Nonauto consumer goods exports rose following two months of decline (1.1% AR, YTD).    

· Imports fell for the third month in four also due to across the board component declines. Capital goods imports fell a huge 6.0% (-1.7% AR, YTD), the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Imports of nonauto consumer goods also plunged, down 4.9% for the third monthly decline in four. Imports of industrial supplies and materials rose despite a decline in the refiner's acquisition cost of imported crude oil. The cost of crude oil fell to $26.74 in October from $27.14 in September.  

 

Foreign Trade

Oct

Sept

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999

Trade Deficit $35.1B $37.1B $30.8B(10/01) $358.3B $378.7B $262.2B
  Exports - Goods & Services -1.0% -0.4% 5.7% -6.2% 11.2% 2.6%
  Imports - Goods & Services -2.4% -1.1% 8.0% -6.0% 18.3% 10.9%

 

Mortgage Applications Back Up

December 18, 2002

By Tom Moeller

· The index of mortgage applications, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, last week recovered all of the prior week's sharp decline.

· Mortgage applications to refinance surged as interest rates fell for the second consecutive week.

·  The recent contract rate on a conventional 30 year mortgage was 5.91% versus 6.09% at the end of November.

· Mortgage applications for home purchase surged and recovered most of the prior week's decline.

 

 
MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)

12/13/02

11/08/02

2001

2000

1999

Total Market Index 985.5 992.3 625.6 322.7 352.0
  Purchase 379.9 333.3 304.9 302.7 275.8
  Refinancing 4,507.6 4,825.6 2,491.0 438.8 795.2

Commentary Archive