Retail Sales Decline

December 3, 2002

· Prices for existing homes rose last quarter by the smallest degree in nearly five years. With the exception of a 0.8% gain in 4Q 01, prices have risen between one and three percent each quarter since 1998 according to the government's Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

· The data cover only home mortgages repurchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and therefore do not cover high priced homes with mortgages over roughly $300,000 (roughly 25% of the market).

· The data correct for "mix shifts", i.e., changes in home quality, size and location.

· Prices of existing homes as published by the National Association of Realtors rose 2.3% last quarter. Year to year, the Realtors' price series rose 6.9% versus a 6.2% gain in the Government series. A strong gain in October home prices lifted the Y/Y comparison in the Realtors' price series to 9.8%.

House Price Index	3Q 02	2Q 02	Y/Y	2001	2000	1999
US Total, Q/Q %	0.8%	2.4%	6.2%	8.5%	7.7%	5.5%

Weekly Chain Store Sales Up

December 3, 2002

By Tom Moeller

· Chain store sales rose 0.3% last week according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The rise during Thanksgiving week was somewhat less ebullient than earlier reports from individual stores of holiday sales. The gain followed a 0.9% rise in sales the prior week.

· Sales for the month of November were down 0.2% from the average level of October. October sales fell 1.5% from September.

· Month to month comparisons, and certainly year to year comparisons, are difficult due to the late timing of Thanksgiving this year.

· During the last ten years there has been a 48% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales. That correlation rose to 63% during the last five years.

BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)	11/30/02	11/23/02	Y/Y	2001	2000	1999
Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales	402.0	400.8	4.0%	2.1%	3.4%	6.7%

Challenger Survey Showed Layoffs High in November

December 3, 2002

By Tom Moeller

· According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, announced job cuts remained high last month. The level of layoffs did fall 10.5% versus October, but layoffs during that month had more than doubled

· The three month moving average of job cut announcements rose again to 134,525. That level was down 39.9% versus the high of late last year.

· Lower announced job cuts were notable in the consumer goods, utility, retail, automotive and commodities industries. Layoff announcements rose broadly amongst other industries.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas	Nov	Oct	Y/Y	2001	2000
Announced Job Cuts	157,508	176,010	-13.2%	1,956,876	613,980

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Slightly Better Than Expected

December 3, 2002

By Tom Moeller

· Unit sales of light vehicles rose in November for the first month in three, up a modest 3.8% versus October. Sales were down 10.0% from last November. Sales were better than Consensus expectations for a 15.8M unit sales rate.

· Sales through the first eleven months have averaged 16.64 mil. units, down 4% from the first eleven months of 2001.

· Sales of domestically built vehicles rose 1.3% m/m following two months of decline. Auto sales rose 4.9% but sales of light trucks fell 1.4%.

· Imported vehicle sales rose 14.7%, recouping nearly all of a sharp October decline. Imported auto sales rose 17.1% and truck sales rose 9.9%.

· Imports' share of the US light vehicle market surged to 20.9%, the highest monthly share for imports since a record 21.1% share this past January. Imports' share of the US vehicle market year to date has averaged 19.6% versus 17.8% during all of last year.

Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil.Units)	Nov	Oct	Y/Y	2001	2000	1999
Total	16.04	15.45	-10.0%	17.27	17.40	16.95
Domestic	12.69	12.53	-12.8%	14.20	14.58	14.47
Imported	3.35	2.92	2.3%	3.07	2.82	2.48

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