·
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
index of net hiring rose for 1Q03 from the improved level of the prior
six months.
· The not seasonally adjusted survey results indicated that 20% of firms plan to add employees in 1Q03 compared to 24% in 4Q. 12% planned to cut payrolls in 1Q compared to 9% in 4Q.
· Hiring typically weakens seasonally in 1Q and layoffs also typically rise
· Over the last 25 years there has been an 77% correlation between the Manpower survey net hiring figure and the y/y change in nonfarm payrolls. That correlation fell to 51% during the most recent ten years.
· Manpower surveys nearly 16,000 public & private firms in 477 US markets.
·
The Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) published by the Economic Cycle
Research Institute (ECRI) remained stable in October after sharp m/m
gains in six of the prior seven months. Gains in those months were also
revised higher.