·
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved slightly in
September, although the index remained negative.
· The reading left the three-month moving average of the CFNAI at -0.25, a level much improved versus the lows of late last year.
. A zero value indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
· During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and quarterly growth in real GDP.
· The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production & income, the labor market, personal consumption & housing, mfg. & trade sales, and inventories & orders.
· For a complete discussion of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index click here.
· A discussion of the CFNAI and its role as a business cycle indicator can be found here.