Weekly Chain Store Sales Recover, Again Just Some

November 5, 2002

By Tom Moeller

 · Chain store sales rose sharply last week, according to the BTM-UBSW survey, but the rise did not recover all the prior week's sharp decline. Sales rose 1.1% after falling 1.9% the week prior.

· For all of October, sales were 1.5% below the average for September. September sales fell 1.1% vs. August which were down 0.9% from July.

· Weak sales during November last year caused the y/y comparison to 2002 to improve slightly.

· During the last ten years there has been a 38% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales.  

 

  
BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)

11/02/02

10/26/02

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999
Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales 399.9 395.5 2.8% 2.1% 3.4% 6.7%

 

Challenger Survey Indicates Layoffs Surged in October

November 5, 2002

By Tom Moeller

· According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas,  announced job cuts more than doubled in October versus the depressed September level.  

· While the three month moving average of job cut announcements rose, it remained down 45.8% versus the high of late last year.

· Announced job cuts rose m/m in most industries.

 

 

 
Challenger, Gray & Christmas

Oct

Sept

Y/Y

2001

2000
Announced Job Cuts 176,010 70,057 -27.3% 1,956,876 613,980

 

ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Fell Slightly

November 5, 2002

By Tom Moeller

· The Institute for Supply Management business activity index of the nonmanufacturing sector fell less than expected last month. Consensus expectations were for a decline to 51.5.

· The overall index has remained above 50, the dividing line for expansion and contraction, since February.

· Of the seasonally adjusted subgroups, new orders and employment fell, but imports rose .

· The not seasonally adjusted index of prices rose slightly but remained down versus the highs of earlier this year. 

· During the last five years, there has been a 54% correlation between the level of the NAPM nonmanufacturing index and quarterly growth in real GDP in the service sector.

· Business activity for the nonmanufacturing sector is a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index weights the components.

· ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The nonmanufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively.
   
ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey

Oct

Sept

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999
Business Activity Index 53.1 53.9 48.5 49.0 59.2 59.1

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