U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Plummet

November 4, 2002

By Tom Moeller

· Unit sales of light vehicles fell in October to the lowest pace since December 2000. Consensus expectations had been for a 16.4 M sales rate. Year to date sales have averaged 16.7 M units, about equal to the first ten months of 2001.  

· Sales of domestically built vehicles fell 3.4% m/m following the 16.3% decline in September. Auto and light truck sales fell evenly.

· Imported vehicle sales fell a sharper 12.9% vs. September after a 5.7% rise during that month. Imported auto sales fell 16.5% and truck sales were down 4.7%.

· Imports' share of the US light vehicle market fell to 18.9% following the surge to 20.6% in September. Imports' share averaged 17.8% last year. 

Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil.Units)

Oct

Sept

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999

Total 15.45 16.33 -27.4% 17.27 17.40 16.95
  Domestic 12.53 12.97 -29.3% 14.20 14.58 14.47
  Imported 2.92 3.36 -17.8% 3.07 2.82 2.48

 

Factory Inventories Flat

November 4, 2002

By Tom Moeller

· Manufacturing inventories were unchanged in September after rising slightly in August versus the initial report of a slight decline. During the last four months, factory inventories have been about flat.

· Excluding the transportation sector inventories rose slightly for the third straight month and are up 0.6% during that period. The decline in transportation sector inventories was led by lower inventories of light trucks and nondefense aircraft. Factory inventories of automobiles rose sharply.

· Increases in inventories have been led by the nondurable goods sector, up 2.0% during the last four months. Gains have been strong for petroleum, textile products, plastics and basic chemicals.

· Decumulation in the durable goods sector continued unabated, down 0.3% m/m and 4.4% YTD. Declines have been widespread amongst industries.

· Shipments fell 0.1% but for the year have risen 2.3%. Again, gains have been strongest in nondurable goods industries (3.0% YTD), notably petroleum. Less petroleum, nondurable shipments were up 1.7% YTD in September. Shipments of durable goods were up 1.7% YTD.

· Factory orders fell 2.3% led by a 4.9% drop in orders for durable goods, revised from the advance report of a 5.9% decline. The decline in nondefense capital goods was lessened to   -10.6% from -12.6%. Excluding aircraft the  decline in capital goods orders was revised to -4.3% from -6.6%.

 

Inventories

Sept

Aug

Y/Y

2001

2000

1999

Mfg Inventories 0.0% 0.1% -5.2% -8.0% 4.5% 3.1%

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