U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Plummet
November 4, 2002
By Tom Moeller
·
Unit sales of light vehicles fell in October to the lowest pace since
December 2000. Consensus expectations had been for a 16.4 M sales rate.
Year to date sales have averaged 16.7 M units, about equal to the first
ten months of 2001.
· Sales of domestically built vehicles fell 3.4% m/m following the 16.3% decline in September. Auto and light truck sales fell evenly. · Imported vehicle sales fell a sharper 12.9% vs. September after a 5.7% rise during that month. Imported auto sales fell 16.5% and truck sales were down 4.7%. · Imports' share of the US light vehicle
market fell to 18.9% following the surge to 20.6% in September. Imports'
share averaged 17.8% last year. |
| Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil.Units) |
Oct |
Sept |
Y/Y |
2001 |
2000 |
1999 |
| Total | 15.45 | 16.33 | -27.4% | 17.27 | 17.40 | 16.95 |
| Domestic | 12.53 | 12.97 | -29.3% | 14.20 | 14.58 | 14.47 |
| Imported | 2.92 | 3.36 | -17.8% | 3.07 | 2.82 | 2.48 |
November 4, 2002
By Tom Moeller
·
Manufacturing inventories were unchanged in
September after rising slightly in August versus the initial report of a
slight decline. During the last four months, factory inventories have been
about flat.
· Excluding the transportation sector inventories rose slightly for the third straight month and are up 0.6% during that period. The decline in transportation sector inventories was led by lower inventories of light trucks and nondefense aircraft. Factory inventories of automobiles rose sharply. · Increases in inventories have been led by the nondurable goods sector, up 2.0% during the last four months. Gains have been strong for petroleum, textile products, plastics and basic chemicals. · Decumulation in the durable goods sector continued unabated, down 0.3% m/m and 4.4% YTD. Declines have been widespread amongst industries. · Shipments fell 0.1% but for the year have risen 2.3%. Again, gains have been strongest in nondurable goods industries (3.0% YTD), notably petroleum. Less petroleum, nondurable shipments were up 1.7% YTD in September. Shipments of durable goods were up 1.7% YTD. · Factory orders fell 2.3% led by a 4.9% drop in orders for durable goods, revised from the advance report of a 5.9% decline. The decline in nondefense capital goods was lessened to -10.6% from -12.6%. Excluding aircraft the decline in capital goods orders was revised to -4.3% from -6.6%.
|
| Inventories |
Sept |
Aug |
Y/Y |
2001 |
2000 |
1999 |
| Mfg Inventories | 0.0% | 0.1% | -5.2% | -8.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% |